Ocean Circulation Lab
USF College of Marine Science


Tracking and predicting the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico

In a joint effort of the Ocean Circulation Group and the Optical Oceanography Laboratory at College of Marine Science, University of South Florida to track and predict the Deepwater Horizon (Macondo Well) oil spill spreading, virtual particle trajectories are simulated based on the surface ocean currents output from six numerical models: the WFS ROMS, the Global HYCOM, the GOM HYCOM, the SABGOM, the RTOFS, and the NCOM IASNFS (see the links below). The latest satellite imagey of surface oil is used to re-initialize the virtual particle locations so that the starting point of the simulation is as accurate as possible. A series of experiments have been implemented and the results are listed as follows. It must be recognized that all forecast models have errors that grow with time for a variety of reasons. So, it is important to consider ensemble analyses from several different models.

The latest ensemble forecast of surface oil trajectory


Nowcast/forecast from individual surface oil trajectory models re-initialized with the lastest satellite imagery:

WFS ROMS

Global HYCOM

GOM HYCOM

SABGOM

RTOFS

NCOM


Related publications:
Liu, Y., A. MacFadyen, Z.-G. Ji, and R.H. Weisberg (Editors), 2011: Monitoring and Modeling the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill: A Record-Breaking Enterprise, Geophysical Monograph Series, Vol. 195, 271 PP., ISSN: 0065-8448, ISBN 978-0-87590-485-6. AGU/geopress, Washington, D.C.

Archived hindcast/forecast of surface oil trajectory:

Multiple-model ensemble forecast re-initialized with satellite imagery:
July
2
4
7
8
9
June
1
4
6
7
9
May

Individual model forecast re-initialized with satellite imagery:
May
4
May
2
May
1
April
29
April
27
April
25


Surface oil trajectory hindcast/forecast using numerical model only:

Surface oil gtrajectory hindcast experiments from 05/18 to 05/22 (or 05/31) with re-initialization from satellite imagery on 05/18/2010:


Satellite-tracked drifter trajectory superimposed on the Global HYCOM simulated ocean currents:

Animations:

All USF drifters recently deployed in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
All currently active drifters recently deployed in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
All the drifters (including inactive) recently deployed in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

View these drifters in Google Map.


Links to the numerical ocean circulation models used in the surface oil trajectory hindcast/forecast:

WFS ROMS West Florida Shelf ROMS Hindcast/Forecast System University of South Florida

Global HYCOM

 Global HYCOM + NCODA Analysis The HYCOM Consortium

GOM HYCOM

 Gulf of Mexico HYCOM Nowcast/Forecast System The HYCOM Consortium

SABGOM

 South Atlantic Bight - Gulf of Mexico Nowcast/Forecast System North Carolina State University

RTOFS

 Real Ttime Ocean Forecast System (Atlantic) NOAA Environmental Modeling Center

NCOM

 Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) - IASNFS Naval Research Laboratory



Disclaimer:

The nowcast/forecast system and other analyses/data are research products under development. No warranty is made, expressed or implied, regarding accuracy, or regarding the suitability for any particular application. All rights reserved University of South Florida. Copyright University of South Florida 05/06/2010.


See Dr. Yonggang Liu's publications.

Back to Dr. Yonggang Liu's research page.













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