Tracking and prediction of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico


In a joint effort of the Ocean Circulation Group and the Optical Oceanography Laboratory at College of Marine Science, University of South Florida to track and predict the Deepwater Horizon (Macondo Well) oil spill spreading, surface drifter trajectories are simulated based on the surface ocean currents output from five numerical models, the West Florida Shelf ROMS Hindcast/Forecast System, the Global HYCOM + NCODA Analysis, the Navy Gulf of Mexico HYCOM Nowcast/Forecast System, the SABGOM Nowcast/Forecast System, and the RTOFS (Atlantic) hindcast/forecast system. The latest satellite imageries of oil slick are also used to initialize the drifter locations so that the simulation is as getting close to the real situation as possible. A series of experiments have been implemented and the results are listed as follows (with the most recent results listed on top).It must be recognized that all forecast models have errors that grow with time for a variety of reasons. This is one reason why it is important to consider comparative analyses from several different models.

EOS feature article:

Liu, Y., R.H. Weisberg, C. Hu, and L. Zheng, 2011: Tracking the Deepwater Horizon oil spill: A modeling perspective, EOS Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 92(6), 45-46, doi: 10.1029/2011EO060001. New!




Drifter trajectory hindcast/forecast using a cmobination of numerical model and satellite imagery:


Four-panel view of four oil spill trajectory models (ensemble forecast)


Individual model results can be seen below:

WFS ROMS based surface drifters initialized from the latest satellite imagery

Global HYCOM based surface drifters initialized from the latest satellite imagery

Navy GOM HYCOM based surface drifters initialized from the latest satellite imagery

SABGOM based surface drifters initialized from the lastest satellite imagery

RTOFS based surface drifters initialized from the latest satellite imagery



WFS ROMS based surface drifters initialized from satellite imagery on May 4, 2010.

HYCOM based surface drifters initialized from satellite imagery on May 4, 2010.

SABGOM based surface drifters initialized from satellite imagery on May 4, 2010.

RTOFS based surface drifters initialized from satellite imagery on May 4, 2010.


WFS ROMS based surface drifters initialized from satellite imagery on May 2, 2010.

HYCOM based surface drifters initialized from satellite imagery on May 2, 2010.

RTOFS based surface drifters initialized from satellite imagery on May 2, 2010.


WFS ROMS based surface drifters initialized from satellite imagery on May 1, 2010.

HYCOM based surface drifters initialized from satellite imagery on May 1, 2010.

RTOFS based surface drifters initialized from satellite imagery on May 1, 2010.


WFS ROMS based surface drifters initialized from satellite imagery on April 29, 2010.

HYCOM based surface drifters initialized from satellite imagery on April 29, 2010.


WFS ROMS based surface drifters initialized from satellite imagery on April 27, 2010.

HYCOM based surface drifters initialized from satellite imagery on April 27, 2010.


WFS ROMS based surface drifter trajectories started from April 25, 2010, with drifters initialized from satellite imagery.

HYCOM based surface drifter trajectories started from April 25, 2010, with drifters initialized from satellite imagery.


Drifter trajectory hindcast/forecast using numerical model only:

WFS ROMS based surface drifter trajectory started from April 20, 2010 when the oil rig was exploded.

HYCOM based drifter trajectory started from April 20, 2010 when the oil rig was exploded.





Disclaimer:

The nowcast/forecast system and other analyses/data are research products under development. No warranty is made, expressed or implied, regarding accuracy, or regarding the suitability for any particular application. All rights reserved University of South Florida. Copyright University of South Florida 05/06/2010.



See Dr. Yonggang Liu's publications.

Back to Dr. Yonggang Liu's research page.













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